HONG KONG 2050

Between Prophecy, Science, and the Urgency of Preparing for a More Extreme Climate Future

By Jucelino Luz

A WARNING THAT MUST NOT BE IGNORED

Hong Kong stands before challenges that demand attention, planning, and preparation.

This document brings together two distinct perspectives: on the one hand, projections and warnings attributed to the prophecies of Jucelino Luz; on the other, observed meteorological data and projections produced by climate science.

It is essential not to confuse these two categories. Prophecies are not predestinations; they are predictions based on dreams and do not represent inevitable events. Scientific data, as Jucelino Luz also points out in his capacity as a researcher, are based on observations, measurements, models, and scenarios that carry varying degrees of uncertainty.

However, when certain warnings find parallels in risks already identified by science—such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, and the vulnerability of coastal regions—there is legitimate reason to reflect, plan, and, above all, prepare.

The central message of this document is simple:

The future should not be confronted only when an emergency arrives. Preparation must begin beforehand.

1. HONG KONG IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING CHANGE

The year 2025 left important warning signs.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), 2025 was the sixth warmest year ever recorded in Hong Kong, with an annual mean temperature of 24.3°C, approximately 0.8°C above the 1991–2020 climatological normal.

Even more significantly:

All 12 months of 2025 were warmer than normal.

The territory recorded 53 very hot days and 54 hot nights, both among the highest figures ever observed.

In addition, the HKO identified 20 record-breaking meteorological events during 2025 involving temperature, rainfall, and humidity.

These figures are not prophecies.

They are meteorological records.

And 2026 continued to provide reasons for concern. During the winter from December 2025 to February 2026, Hong Kong experienced the warmest winter in its recorded history.

In August 2026, further extremes were observed: the temperature at the Hong Kong Observatory reached 36.9°C, setting an all-time record for that station, while Sheung Shui reached 39.8°C, the highest temperature ever recorded within Hong Kong’s automatic weather station network.

These developments demonstrate why discussions concerning 2030 and 2050 should not be regarded merely as distant concerns.

The process of climate transformation is already underway.

2. EXTREME HEAT: A CHALLENGE TO EVERYDAY LIFE

Rising temperatures represent more than mere discomfort.

Prolonged extreme heat can affect health, working conditions, energy consumption, the functioning of cities, and overall quality of life.

Older people, children, individuals with certain health conditions, and workers exposed to outdoor environments may be particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Small, poorly ventilated, or inadequately insulated apartments can accumulate dangerously high temperatures.

For this reason, Hong Kong will need to expand strategies relating to:

• extreme heat warning systems;
• publicly accessible air-conditioned centres and cooling facilities;
• increased tree planting and the creation of shaded areas;
• improved urban ventilation;
• improved thermal insulation in buildings;
• specific protections for outdoor workers;
• assistance for older people and vulnerable populations;
• public education regarding dehydration and heat stress;
• electricity networks capable of handling periods of exceptional demand.

Air conditioning can play an important role in protecting people from extreme heat when used appropriately. It is therefore inaccurate to make the general claim that air conditioning is “very harmful to the lungs.” Poor maintenance, dirty filters, excessively low temperatures, and certain individual health conditions may cause problems, but climate control can also play an important role in preventing heat-related illnesses.

3. TYPHOONS, EXTREME RAINFALL, AND A TERRITORY UNDER PRESSURE

The year 2025 was also exceptionally stormy.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory, 14 tropical cyclones required the issuance of warning signals in Hong Kong, more than twice the historical average of approximately six per year and the highest number recorded since 1946.

The No. 10 Hurricane Signal was issued twice during the year.

Hong Kong also recorded five Black Rainstorm Warnings, establishing a new annual record.

These events are particularly significant because a highly urbanised coastal city must simultaneously consider several different threats:

extreme heat + extreme rainfall + typhoons + storm surges + gradual sea-level rise.

It is the combination of these factors that may amplify their impacts.

4. THE SEA: ONE OF THE MAJOR CHALLENGES TOWARDS 2050

Global mean sea level is rising.

Among the principal causes are:

1. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets;

2. Thermal expansion of the oceans, as water occupies a greater volume as it warms.

Sea-level rise does not necessarily mean that a coastal city will suddenly become permanently submerged all at once.

The danger may instead emerge progressively through:

• more frequent coastal flooding;
• storm surges reaching higher areas;
• coastal erosion;
• damage to ports and infrastructure;
• increased pressure on drainage systems;
• salinisation;
• economic losses;
• population displacement in vulnerable regions.

According to projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2050 global mean sea-level rise is likely to be on the order of several tens of centimetres—approximately 15 to 29 centimetres relative to 1995–2014—depending on the emissions scenario.

This may appear relatively small when viewed simply on a ruler.

For a coastal city, however, additional centimetres in average sea level can significantly increase the effects of storms, waves, and extreme tides.

Therefore, the appropriate question is not merely:

“How many centimetres will the ocean rise?”

The question must also be:

“What will happen when a higher ocean meets an extreme storm, intense rainfall, and vulnerable infrastructure?”

5. THE PROPHECIES OF JUCELINO LUZ: A WARNING SCENARIO, NOT A SENTENCE

Within the prophetic projections presented by Jucelino Luz, Hong Kong would face increasing environmental and coastal challenges between 2030 and 2050, primarily associated with heat, water, storms, pressure on ecosystems, and sea-level rise.

These statements must be presented for what they are: prophecies and prospective scenarios attributed to the author, rather than scientifically verified predictions.

The purpose should not be to create fear.

The purpose should be to encourage awareness.

A prophecy, according to the interpretation presented by the author himself, is not set in stone and does not necessarily represent predestination.

If a negative scenario can encourage prevention, education, and preparedness, then the warning may serve as an instrument for reflection.

Therefore:

We should not wait until 2050 to begin thinking about 2050.

6. HONG KONG: WHY IS PREPARATION PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT?

Hong Kong covers approximately 1,100 square kilometres, has more than seven million inhabitants, and contains an extraordinary concentration of population, infrastructure, and economic activity.

Its territory comprises Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, the New Territories, and numerous islands, including Lantau.

Ports, commercial districts, transport systems, residential communities, and critical infrastructure are located close to the coastline.

This makes coastal planning particularly important.

The same principle applies worldwide to coastal cities, islands, and regions such as Guangzhou, Macao, Mumbai, New York, Miami, and numerous island territories across the Pacific, the Caribbean, and Asia.

The problem, therefore, is not exclusive to Hong Kong.

Hong Kong can be understood as part of a global challenge.

7. BIODIVERSITY: PROTECTING NATURE ALSO MEANS PROTECTING THE CITY

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and the frequency of extreme events can alter terrestrial, coastal, and marine habitats.

Mangroves, wetlands, coastal areas, marine species, and terrestrial ecosystems need to be monitored and protected.

It would not be prudent to present a specific percentage of species expected to lose their habitats in Hong Kong by 2050 without a directly verifiable scientific source.

Nevertheless, the climate-related risk to biodiversity is real and deserves careful planning.

Healthy ecosystems can also function as part of the defence of human communities.

Protecting nature is not merely about preserving landscapes; it is about increasing the resilience of the territory.

8. WHAT CAN HONG KONG DO NOW?

A warning only has value when it leads to preparation.

Governments, institutions, businesses, and the public must work together.

Infrastructure

Continuously map areas vulnerable to flooding and storm surges; strengthen drainage systems; assess coastal barriers; and adapt ports, tunnels, roads, rail systems, hospitals, airports, and energy facilities.

Housing

Establish building standards designed to withstand extreme heat, intense rainfall, and flooding; improve ventilation, thermal insulation, and energy efficiency.

Health

Expand heat warnings, hospital preparedness plans, assistance for older people and outdoor workers, and public campaigns concerning hydration and the early recognition of heat-related illnesses.

Emergency Preparedness

Every family should know in advance:

• evacuation routes;
• shelter locations;
• official emergency telephone numbers;
• where essential documents are kept;
• procedures to follow in the event of a typhoon or flooding;
• alternative means of communication should conventional networks fail.

A household emergency kit should include drinking water, non-perishable food, necessary medicines, a flashlight, batteries or an alternative power source, a radio, chargers, basic first-aid supplies, and protected copies of important documents.

During any emergency, official guidance issued by the relevant local authorities should always take precedence.

Education

Schools can incorporate climate education and training for extreme events.

Children and young people need to understand not only what is happening, but also how they should respond.

Environmental Protection

Mangroves, wetlands, and other coastal ecosystems should form part of adaptation strategies whenever technically appropriate.

Long-Term Planning

Major infrastructure constructed today will still exist in 2050.

Therefore, decisions made in 2026 must take into account the climate of the coming decades, rather than relying solely on the conditions of the past.

9. A WARNING FOR HONG KONG—AND FOR THE WORLD

Hong Kong is not alone.

Sea-level rise is a global problem.

Small island states, coastal communities, and major metropolitan areas will face varying levels of exposure and differing capacities to adapt.

Some communities that have historically contributed relatively little to global emissions are among the most vulnerable.

This makes climate change not only an environmental issue, but also an economic, social, and humanitarian challenge.

Homes, jobs, infrastructure, historical heritage, and cultural identities may all be affected.

We are not discussing maps alone. We are discussing people.

10. THE 2050 SCENARIO HAS NOT YET BEEN FULLY DECIDED

Perhaps this is the most important message.

Climate science works with different scenarios precisely because the future depends, in part, on the decisions made in the present.

Reducing emissions, adapting cities, protecting ecosystems, improving urban planning, advancing technology, developing resilient infrastructure, and strengthening international cooperation can significantly alter the scale of future damage.

Likewise, within the prophetic interpretation presented in this document, these warnings should not be understood as inevitable outcomes.

Prophecy does not have to mean condemnation.

Projection does not mean inevitability.

A warning should mean preparation.

CONCLUSION

2050 BEGINS NOW

The 20 record-breaking meteorological events recorded in Hong Kong during 2025, the sixth warmest year in local history, the 14 tropical cyclones that required warning signals, and the new extremes subsequently observed are all signs that deserve serious attention.

They do not prove a prophecy.

But they demonstrate that concrete climate risks exist and justify serious preparation.

Hong Kong possesses scientific knowledge, technological capability, infrastructure, and human resources that can contribute to its adaptation.

The greatest mistake would be to turn a warning into panic.

The second greatest mistake would be simply to ignore it.

Between these two extremes lies a far more responsible path:

knowledge, prevention, preparation, and action.

Governments need to plan.

Scientists need to continue researching and communicating risks.

Businesses need to protect workers and infrastructure.

Schools need to educate.

Communities need to understand their emergency plans.

And families need to know how to act before an extreme situation occurs.

Rising seas, increasing temperatures, and extreme weather events do not respect political borders.

For this reason, this message is not directed solely at Hong Kong.

It is a warning to the world.

If the most concerning projections can be reduced through decisions made today, then an opportunity still exists.

If certain prophecies never come to pass because governments and societies acted preventively, all the better.

The purpose of a responsible warning should not be to prove that a catastrophe will happen.

It should be to help prevent it from happening—or, should an extreme event occur, to ensure that it encounters a society prepared to face it.

HONG KONG 2050: PREPARING TODAY TO PROTECT TOMORROW

Jucelino Luz — journalist, influencer, environmentalist, psychoanalyst, and spiritual adviser